IDC Forecast Global Smartphone Shipments Drop to a Decade Low as Memory Shortage Drives Prices Up

Global smartphone shipments are forecast to fall to 1.1 billion units in 2026, a 12.9 percent year-on-year decline, as memory shortages tighten supplies and push costs higher. The International Data Corporation (IDC) says the drop will bring annual shipments to their lowest level in more than a decade. Regions with heavy low-end smartphone penetration are expected to bear the biggest declines, and the industry braces for a period when memory prices stabilise only gradually.

In its latest report published on Thursday, IDC warned that worldwide smartphone shipments will shrink by 12.9% year-on-year in 2026 to 1.1 billion units. The forecast highlights a market that could see consolidation as smaller players exit and more established brands adjust strategy in response to tighter supply and higher prices.

IDC Market Forecast and Global Outlook

“The global smartphone market, particularly Android manufacturers, faces a significant threat. Vendors whose business is mainly at the low end of the market are likely to suffer the most. Rising component costs will hit their margins, and they will have no choice but to pass the costs on to end users," said Francisco Jeronimo, Vice President for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC. He added that companies like Apple and Samsung are better positioned to navigate this crisis.

Nabila Popal, Senior Research Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said:

“The memory crisis will cause more than a temporary decline; it marks a structural reset of the entire market, fundamentally reshaping long‑term TAM (Total Addressable Market), the vendor landscape, and the product mix.”

She expects industry consolidation, with smaller companies exiting the market and low-end vendors facing a sharp decline in shipments due to tight supply constraints and lower demand at higher price points. She notes that average selling prices (ASP) will rise 14 percent to a record $523 (roughly Rs. 47,000) this year despite a record decline in shipments.

“While memory prices are projected to stabilise by mid-2027, they are unlikely to return to the previous level — making the sub-$100 (roughly Rs. 9,000) segment permanently uneconomical. In short, there is no return to business as usual for vendors and consumers,” Nabila Popal said.

IDC notes that markets with a high concentration of low-end smartphones will be affected the most. The Middle East and Africa could see the steepest drop at 20.6 percent YoY. China and the Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China) are expected to decline 10.5 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively.

When the crisis stabilises by mid-2027, IDC predicts a modest 2 percent recovery that year, followed by a stronger 5.2 percent year-on-year rebound in 2028.

Key figures

• 2026 shipments: 1.1 billion units, down 12.9% YoY
• Average selling price: up 14% to a record $523
• Memory prices: projected to stabilise by mid-2027, unlikely to return to previous levels
• Regional declines: Middle East and Africa -20.6%, China -10.5%, APAC excluding Japan -13.1%
• Recovery: 2% in 2027, 5.2% in 2028